Turkish Central Bank forecasts inflation surge in May

Turkey's Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan predicted that inflation will start falling in June.

Karahan revised up his year-end forecast slightly to 38%, AFP reported.

Consumer price inflation accelerated in April, reaching 69.8% year-on-year.

"During the disinflationary process that will occur from June onwards, we will continue to do everything necessary to reduce inflation in line with the interim targets we have set," Karahan said at the presentation of his second quarterly report.

"Although the underlying trend of inflation has moderated, it is still above the trajectory we projected in the first inflation report of the year, in February last year," the governor acknowledged.

As a result, "we have updated our inflation forecast to 38% by the end of 2024" from the previous 36%."

The staggering rise in consumer prices and the collapse of the Turkish lira against the dollar and the euro are to blame for the heavy electoral defeat inflicted on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in local elections on March 31.

"We kept our 2025 and 2026 forecasts at 14% and 9% respectively. In the medium term, we aim to stabilize inflation at 5 percent," the governor continued.

The report highlighted particularly large price increases in the services sector in April over the year, including 124.5% in rents, 100.8% in transportation services, 95.8% in hotels and restaurants and 103.9% in private education.

The central bank therefore intends to continue its policy of tightening monetary policy, begun in June 2023 after Erdogan's re-election, by raising its key interest rate from 8.5 per cent to 50 per cent last month.

"We are determined to maintain our restrictive monetary policy until inflation falls to levels consistent with our targets," Karahan warned. / BGNES